in the black hole of the coming recession

On May 15, 1991, Francois Mitterrand appointed the first woman prime minister in the history of the Fifth Republic to renew her second seven-year term, which had already ended. Virtually all republics … 30 years later, almost today, Emmanuel Macron to begin his second five-year term (and the last, in any case, in a row), the term of the “new mandate” for which he promises to become the new President “to bequeath a” livable planet “to future generations, is going to appoint the second Prime Minister in our history. Finally, if he finds someone who agrees to work. Among the most quoted names are women on the left, such as UNESCO President and former Minister of Culture Audrey Azoule, former Minister of Social Affairs, whose name is associated with pension reform, Marisol Touraine, two current ministers, Agnes Pannier-Runacher (industry) or Florence Parly (defense) … Or from moderate rights, such as Catherine Votren, former Minister of Social Cohesion under Chirac and current President of the Great Reims. The answer comes shortly at the end of Jean Castex’s last visit to the Vatican this Sunday. He is right, the blessing has not hurt anyone, especially nowadays …

On Monday, May 16, the French must finally learn the name of the new tenant Matignon. If it’s not a man, but it would be frankly disappointing after so many hints that it is a woman who will embody the new method of the newly invented Macron. However, the contract starts with a 5-week CDD to lead the legislative struggle, which looks tougher than expected. But a priori, according to the poll, despite the push of the left Nupes, the French must be consistent and give a majority to the President of the Republic. As noted Mark Endeveld in his column “Political”, “apart from the question of replacing Jean Castex, French political news today is full of comments about future clash at the height of the parliamentary elections between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Melanchon (which the latter managed to establish with great skill) “. So, would Nupes be the bait? Macron takes the threat seriously and puts himself in battle, trying to provoke a republican flurry against the People’s Ecological Front of the new multiple left.

A sign that the government is not so calm, he announces, without waiting for the election of new deputies, tough measures on purchasing power to withstand the fire of prices. Will Macron’s 2 anti-inflation package be enough to reassure voters without worrying about markets?interrogates Fanny Ginochet indicating the costs and ambiguity of the law under consideration. I am not very sure that Macron, and with him us, will be saved “at any cost.”

The governor of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Gallo, claims that raising long-term interest rates by 1 point means 40 billion euros in additional debt payments: so Macron’s debt capacity is declining. Christine Lagarde, who will obviously not be prime minister (They say that in Frankfurt it is more useful to restrain the growth of rates) is preparing to decide to increase its tone and rates from July.

In the financial markets, this will falter, warned Jerome Powell, a powerful boss of the US Federal Reserve, which has already begun a cycle of strengthening monetary policy that “will not be painless”

A massacre has begun for cryptocurrency speculators experiencing a real crash: bitcoin fell sharply (despite a rebound on Friday) below $ 30,000.

In addition to cryptocurrencies, the whole technological bubble collapses, especially Nasdaq stars, he says Guillaume Renoir. In California, the party is over, we are already preparing for the coming recession and nostalgically remember how the Internet bubble burst.

Financial markets are rediscovering the golden rule of investing: usually the value of shares is related to the level of interest rates. The end of free money hurts all the more because many investors have borrowed at a zero rate to speculate. so it is a race for cash for large investment funds.

“The whole point is to know how many pieces of meat the central banks are going to remove with a scalpel from the patient to cure him of excesses? Says a big banker … Cryptos, SPACs, Fintechs, Private Equity, global stock exchanges: it will shake in a world destabilized by the war in Ukraine and its consequences for energy prices and supply chains.

The imprisonment of major Chinese cities is still tarnishing the picture Covid World Summit recalls that without global vaccination, we are not ready to get out of the pandemic.

Of course, as Edith Cresson, the first prime minister mentioned above, would say in a phrase that remained well-known in a short sentence attributed to her by a Paris Match journalist: “The stock market? I have nothing to depilate! (We remember this all the more because the financial markets fell in the process – not because of this …). An ancient French tradition: did not de Gaulle say that French policy “can not be done in the trash”? But yes, still a little. For Emmanuel Macron, this new market context will affect his ability to implement the famous “environmental planning” he wants to steal from Melenchon’s program. Financing the energy and food shield for the poorest French people with increasingly expensive loans will not last long against the wall of money and reality. As for the ecological transition, whether for the state, companies and households, we will have to find someone who will pay for the huge investments needed to decarbonise our economies and our industries. In Russia, the sanctions are related to the war in Ukraine promise to plunge the country into recession this year.

The reaction will be fierce for the West as well the first Russian gas cuts take place through Poland. So Berlin accuses Moscow of energy war and what the European Union condemns “Pact” between Russia and China.

In short, the baptism of Macron II’s new government will not be easy. Inflation, recession, deglobalization, global warming: we know a calmer period. Like Sagittarius A *, a black hole discovered this week at the center of a galaxy that absorbs all the energy around it, the world is entering a black hole of growth, with an imminent recession. Maybe we are just painfully getting out of the fifteen years of economic deviations caused by the great financial crisis of 2008? This led to an abnormal increase in the central bank’s balance sheets, which masked inflation and artificially maintained asset prices (real estate, stock exchanges, cryptocurrencies).

Robert Jules strongly optimistic: after the surge in prices in the United States is already beginning to show an outflow of inflation. “In April, the growth of the consumer price index was 8.3% year on year across the Atlantic, slowing from 8.5% in March. Have we reached the peak of inflation? The Moody’s report predicts a decline in 2023 and a return to the 2% target in 2024 due to monetary policy pursued by central banks for decades.

As soon as it starts, is it over? The question is whether this forecast will come true without a serious recession. The economy may just be rediscovering that cycles exist, and the war in Ukraine was just a trigger return to normal which came too late.

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To understand the world to come and try to reassure these 8 young engineers from AgroParisTech, who resonated on May 10, urging other graduates of their school to “leave” jobs that are destroying the planet (see their intervention video here), see the rerun of the Sharing the Economy forum organized by La Tribune on Monday, May 9.

What if finances became our friend again? This is the challenge of the ESG revolution, a set of environmental, social and governance criteria that are becoming essential in asset management and in companies. About 12 round tables La Tribune gathered on an exceptional day 45 best and best experts on this topic for a conference entitled: ESG, no more blah blah blah, to shed light on criteria, practices and their implementation.